1. Green (5 4) 24/20 13/8

Move 1 White





 
Pip: 167
 
Pip: 158
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 24/20 13/8 -0.148
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
* 2 3 24/15 -0.205 (-0.057)
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
  3 3 24/20 6/1* -0.220 (-0.071)
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
Alert: Blunder (0.057)


Move 2 Green





 
Pip: 158
 
Pip: 158
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 8/5 6/5 0.186
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
* 2 3 24/23 13/10* 0.149 (-0.038)
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
  3 3 13/10*/9 0.143 (-0.044)
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.

Checker play
A beautiful tripple choice - golden anchor, golden point or the the hit in the outfield.
One would usually hit, but the golden points are golden points.
Here the own golden point is right to make. Why? After making the golden point the 8 is unloaded. but not stripped. At a time when white tries to consolidate, black keeps the back man on the 24 point.
Let us move one checker from the 8 to the midpoint. Now the hit is right, because making the golden point would strip the 8 point, but hitting would unload the midpoint .


  White (4 3) bar/21 24/21
3. Green (5 3) 10/5 8/5
  White (4 1) 13/8
4. Green (4 3) 23/20 6/2
  White (3 3) 21/18(2) 13/10(2)

Move 5 Green





 
Pip: 144
 
Pip: 139
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 13/4 0.133
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
  2 3 8/3 6/2 0.110 (-0.023)
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
* 3 3 13/8 6/2 0.088 (-0.045)
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.

Checker play
White is not going to offer a blot next turn. This is a reason for Black to diversify his point making numbers next turn without consideration of his own blots. If fact, the more blots (2 or 3) black leaves, the more points he is expected to be able to make next turn. Usually 2 bots would do.
Playing 13/4 is the most harmonious, abstaining at this stage to make the deep 2 point and starting the "next point in order" the 4.


  White (6 3) 8/2 6/3
6. Green (4 3) 20/13
  White (3 2) 8/5*/3

Move 7 Green





 
Pip: 130
 
Pip: 128
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 bar/23* 8/5 0.636
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
* 2 3 bar/23*/20 0.605 (-0.031)
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
  3 3 bar/23* 13/10 0.495 (-0.141)
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
Alert: Joker (0.410)

Checker play
A three to play. 23/20 or 8/5. 23/20 prepares to run, but even in a good sequence of rolls black will not achieve much, while unloading the 8 puts more pressure on the newly born white straggler and does not activate the stripped white 8 point. The 8/5 is non-commitment play as it does not start the extrication of the straggler, but a constructive play as it prepares to fill the 3 and 4 points.


  White (4 2) bar/21 6/4






 
Pip: 147
 
Pip: 123
 

8. Green Double
  White Take

Cube action equity
3-Ply Money equity: 0.383
  0.8%  19.0%  63.2%    36.8%   7.7%   0.3%
1. No double 0.632
2. Double, take 0.630 (-0.001)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.368)
Proper cube action:   No double, take0%


9. Green (5 3) 8/3 6/3

Move 9 White





 
Pip: 147
 
Pip: 115
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 8/4 6/5* -0.244
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
* 2 3 6/2 4/3 -0.542 (-0.298)
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
  3 2 8/4 8/7 -0.397 (-0.153)
Alert: Blunder (0.298)

Checker play
As ugly as it can be.
White is not a favorite because he trails in the race, can reach 3.5 vs 4 boards. If he plays "safe" as he did, he remains with 2 point boards is also the underdog in the "threats" domain.
White gives black the whole deck of cards to play with:
Race
Position
Threats.
Repeat, Repeat, Repeat. (French: ER PE TE) REPETE
If one side prevails in all three domains it is usually a pass. If one side prevails in 2 it is usualy a double and a take. (Joe Sylvester in the early 1990s).
White should try to reverse the trend and play 8/4 6/5*.


10. Green (3 1) 8/4*
  White (4 1) bar/21* 3/2
Alert: Joker (0.620)
11. Green (5 3) bar/20 13/10
  White (6 4) 21/15*/11

Move 12 Green





 
Pip: 131
 
Pip: 139
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 bar/16 -0.265
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
* 2 3 bar/20 8/4 -0.316 (-0.051)
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
  3 3 bar/20 5/1 -0.390 (-0.125)
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
Alert: Blunder (0.051)

Checker play
nMbj. "No more zombies, Joe, no more" This is the first line of a best seller of the 60es - John Braine's "Room at the top".
I say no more blots, joe, no more. Hence nmbj. At some point of the game, safety considerations prevail. But I might say nMbj. 8/4 creates MORE blots, breaks the stepping stone (8) and does not put pressure on white at a time black has a better board.


Move 12 White





 
Pip: 131
 
Pip: 130
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 18/17*/13 0.475
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
* 2 3 11/6 0.242 (-0.233)
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
  3 2 18/14 18/17* 0.279 (-0.196)
Alert: Blunder (0.233)

Checker play
Eblot! Duplication! The race is even and white should take some chances to gain some racing advantage so that he could offer an efficient double. Here the bird is on his arm! He has a chance to:
1. break anchor.
2, hit enemy checker and gain 17 pips in the race.
3. make use of the resulting duplication of sixes to hit.
4. make use of the existing enemy blot (eblot) in his home board and thus reduce the harm of a possible return hit.
In 3 and 4 we see a meaningful reduction of risk of return hit in the form of an enemy blot and duplication.


13. Green (6 5) 20/14 8/3

Move 13 White





 
Pip: 126
 
Pip: 119
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 13/7(2) 10/4(2) 0.457
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
* 2 3 13/1(2) 0.346 (-0.111)
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
  3 2 13/7(2) 8/2(2) 0.201 (-0.256)
Alert: Blunder (0.111)

Checker play
White needs to have a board at the time he will be forced to break anchor. Making the ace point is suicidal. White must realize that he is the favorute and he should do nothing extraordinary - just make the points in order and wait for a running double or a fly shot. In a worser scenario he might be forced to break anchor, but black's 4 point might still be open. So even if forced to give a shot, even if hit, he would have a chance to hit back before being redoubled out, if the position warrants it at that time.


14. Green (6 6) 20/8(2)

Move 14 White





 
Pip: 102
 
Pip: 95
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 8/5 6/4 0.003
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
  2 3 10/7 6/4 -0.012 (-0.015)
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
* 6 3 8/3 -0.051 (-0.055)
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
Alert: Blunder (0.055)

Checker play
Because of white's "ingenious" play the position is even now. His should still do the same as before-build his board and wait to see what the dice will bring. Black would certainly not leave a shot next turn - neither voluntary not forced. In such situations white would better slot two and maximize his chances to make 1 or 2 points next turn.


15. Green (6 3) 14/8 4/1

Move 15 White





 
Pip: 97
 
Pip: 86
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 10/4 10/5 -0.047
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
  2 3 10/4 6/1 -0.058 (-0.011)
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
* 4 3 10/4 8/3 -0.073 (-0.026)
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.

Checker play
Now the error is not so severe, but let me emphasize on another aspect I did not mention earlier. In holding games, most of the equity comes from the racing chances. Holding games should be regarded as racing games with a holding (equity) correction. Playing 6/1 white disregards his racing chances, but they are quite substantial. Harmonious bear-in cares to the danger of wastage in the bear-off. Wastage means rolling more (times) to bear-off one's checkers. In order not to waste rolls, one has to bear in harmoniously. Gaps create conditions for misses in the bear-off. Every miss is a half-turn wastage, every checker on the lower points is an accumulated wastage for the bear-off. The gap is probable, but not realized wastage (one might not miss if he rolls luckily), the men on the ace point are realized wastage. The more men on the ace and deuce points, the more inefficient use of the pips rolled has been made.


16. Green (6 1) 8/1
  White (1 1) 10/9 6/4 3/2
17. Green (5 3) 8/3 8/5
  White (6 4) 9/3 6/2
18. Green (6 4) 13/3
  White (6 3) 18/12* 6/3
Alert: Joker (0.518)

Move 19 Green





 
Pip: 63
 
Pip: 73
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 bar/19 5/2 -0.374
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
  2 3 bar/19 6/3 -0.467 (-0.093)
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
* 3 3 bar/16 -0.492 (-0.118)
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
Alert: Blunder (0.118)

Checker play
Black is behind. He is the underdog, and he needs to stay in contact. 5/2 is a not a big wastage - every checker behind the 4 gap increases the probability of misses. But the most important is to make the game difficult for white - control the outfield and make him waste pips (another aspect of wastage, in addition to wasting half rolls in the bear off, is wasting of pips in the bear-in) or present a shot. Staying on the enemy 6 reduces the harm of a combination hit, preserving a 13/36 returns.


  White (4 3) 18/14 12/9*
20. Green (3 1) Can't move
Alert: Anti-joker (0.356)

Move 20 White





 
Pip: 56
 
Pip: 73
 


Cube action equityAlert: Missed double
3-Ply Money equity: 0.639
  0.0%   0.6%  81.7%    18.3%   0.2%   0.0%
1. Redouble, pass 1.000
2. No redouble 0.879 (-0.121)
3. Redouble, take 1.280 (+0.280)
Proper cube action:   Redouble, pass


Cube action
It is easy. The take point for black is 0.25 and this is MUCH less. This is a mistake.
Any one with an idea how to assess this kind of positions? I mean we do not always have this easy problem.
What if the score was 3 away-4away?.
What if the score was 2 away-4away?.
What if black had a closed board?
What if black had a lower point open?

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 14/9 0.962
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
* 2 3 9/4 0.932 (-0.031)
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
  3 2 14/10 2/1 0.671 (-0.292)

Checker play
As it is, this position is a redouble and a pass before this roll. Black needs as much as 25% to take the recube.
After making the 9 point only 66 and 55 swing the game evaluation to a no-double/take. All other rolls for black give white double-out again.
Some DMP considerations:
If this was a DMP situation
Having a point in the outfield is safer if we keep a checker there at all. In fact, a point further than the 4 away from home contains more contact than staying back with the back checker.
The point will involve more difficulties to clear later, while the 9/4 play bears the checker in most efficiently and breaks contact easier. It is Paul Magriel that teached me first in his great book "Backgammon" not to make points in the outfield when I want to break contact. Here making the 9 point is right. On the other hand, the 9 point is not so difficult to clear as it is only 4 points away from home and black might enter on the 6 point if he enters at all.
Suppose white enters on 6. He would probably run with 5, be blocked with 4 and play inside with small. Now white will run or hit with large, pick and pass with medium and waste with small. Only 10 (27%) rolls would leave a direct shot and white has still not lost. Think about the parlay: If black hits(30%), white does not enter (70%) black will still be only about 85% favorite to win the game. Since he has about 20%chance now, the game winning chances will increase after hitting by 65%.
27%x30%x70%x65% = 4%. Black wll have about 4% additional GWC in addition to his racing chances -about 12% in this position.


21. Green (6 1) bar/19 3/2






 
Pip: 51
 
Pip: 66
 


Cube action equityAlert: Missed double
3-Ply Money equity: 0.481
  0.0%   0.2%  74.0%    26.0%   0.1%   0.0%
1. Redouble, take 0.970
2. No redouble 0.673 (-0.297)
3. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.030)
Proper cube action:   Redouble, take


Cube action
Fisrt of all the gap on 4 is not typical, but we will tackle that later in another article.
Here 8 away is a redouble and a take.
Move the white man to the midpoint and it is a redouble and a pass. But only HERE! at 3 away-3away it is a redouble and a pass, but not at money game. At money game 7 pips away is a take! even with the massive gap (5 checkers behind) - the 4 point.
So a point to remember is that 7 pips away ia a money game take!. Perhaps 23% winning chance.
Another point to remember is that 12 pips away (white man on the bar point) is NOT a double and a take.
It is interesting, but the space and time do not permit to tackle these positions at different match scores.
This typical position surely deserves a special article to follow.

  White (4 1) 14/9
Alert: Anti-joker (0.595)

22. Green (5 5) 19/4 5/off
  White (5 3) 9/4 3/off
23. Green (6 4) 6/off 4/off
  White (4 2) 4/off 2/off
24. Green (6 3) 6/off 3/off
  White (2 1) 2/off 1/off
25. Green (4 2) 5/1 2/off
Alert: Anti-joker (0.335)
  White (4 3) 4/off 3/off
26. Green (1 1) 2/1 1/off(3)
  White (5 3) 4/off 3/off
27. Green (1 1) 3/1 1/off(2)
Alert: Anti-joker (0.301)
  White (6 3) 4/off 3/off
28. Green (5 4) 5/off 3/off
Alert: Joker (0.506)
  White (6 2) 3/off 2/off
29. Green (2 1) 3/off
Alert: Anti-joker (1.251)
  White (3 3) 2/off 1/off
fawn wins 2 points.

Game 1 simplified statistics (EMG Rated)
Player boardmaker fawn
Rating expert novice
Overall 5.398 22.138
Checker play 5.376 14.672
Double 0.022 7.466
Take 0.000 0.000

This file has been generated by Snowie Version 3.0, a product of Oasya SA
Output date: 2:39:57 PM, 1/31/2003(Export v2.10)