1. Orange (5 1) 24/23 13/8
  White (3 3) 24/21(2) 13/10(2)
2. Orange (2 1) 24/22 23/22
  White (5 2) 13/8 6/4
Now Kit has the chance to meet his "first love" - 52 on an opening roll - but now he is 52 ... I am 52 too. They say 51 is worse. Who knows :)
Seriously, 52 is thematic - The 10 point and the better development permit White to slot aggressively. Black must not think twice before hitting if the number comes, but white will have all his guns ready ...


Move 3 Orange





 
Pip: 148
 
Pip: 158
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 8/3 6/2 -0.235
    0.2%   7.2%  41.1%    58.9%  11.0%   0.4%
  2 3 13/8 6/2 -0.241 (-0.006)
    0.2%   6.6%  40.8%    59.2%  10.3%   0.3%
* 4 3 22/13 -0.290 (-0.055)
    0.2%   5.6%  43.0%    57.0%  15.8%   0.5%
This is already a mutual holding game. If Black gets scared by White's improving blockade, White will have more strategies to win - closeout, blockade, holding (though less powerful) and running (more powerful because Balck does not have the anchor any more.
The lonely blot will be under attack...
It will also be difficult to block the advanced anchor. on my 4 point
Bulgarian anchor is good.
Therefore, black could as well build his board from the useless stacks and peep from the copper (Bulgarian) anchor.
To decide whether to stay or to go in such positions an important factor is the timing. Here Black has plenty of time to play from his stacks and he has 2 more men on his midpoint. Also, white needs "to pass the exam" on his blocking numbers, and then run away without being either blitzed or hit by a fly shot in the meantime.
Black has just made the advanced anchor and his next job is to make points.


Move 3 White





 
Pip: 148
 
Pip: 149
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 8/2 8/4 0.261
    0.5%  15.2%  55.5%    44.5%   5.2%   0.2%
  2 3 10/4 10/6 0.192 (-0.070)
    0.4%  12.7%  53.7%    46.3%   4.9%   0.2%
* 4 3 10/4 8/4 0.180 (-0.081)
    0.4%  13.5%  52.8%    47.2%   5.2%   0.2%
The 10 point is 6 away from the made 4 point. That is why Kit prefers to vacate it. But thes fails to start a new point and also the 10 point has some blocking value.
Said Robertie: make points, rather than prepare to make points. This is more important than the "pure" blocking considerations (6 away etc.).
A lonely blot is easier to close out than to block.
And 6 hitting numbers really hurt.


4. Orange (4 4) 22/6
  White (4 1) 10/5
5. Orange (5 1) 8/2
  White (6 1) 8/2 6/5
6. Orange (3 3) 13/10(2) 6/3(2)
  White (3 2) 6/3 4/2
7. Orange (4 1) 13/8
  White (6 3) 13/7 13/10
8. Orange (4 2) 8/2
  White (3 3) 21/18(2) 10/7 8/5
9. Orange (3 2) 8/5 6/4

Move 9 White





 
Pip: 100
 
Pip: 99
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 7/1(2) -0.018
    0.1%   2.0%  49.0%    51.0%   1.8%   0.2%
* 2 3 7/4(2) 4/1 6/3 -0.038 (-0.020)
    0.1%   1.9%  48.2%    51.8%   2.0%   0.2%
  3 3 8/5 7/1 6/3 -0.039 (-0.021)
    0.1%   1.7%  48.3%    51.7%   1.9%   0.2%
5 points are more than 4 points ...


10. Orange (1 1) 10/9(2) 6/4
  White (6 5) 8/2 6/1
11. Orange (5 3) 8/3 8/5
  White (4 2) 5/1 4/2
12. Orange (6 4) 9/3 9/5
  White (6 2) 18/10
13. Orange (5 1) 13/7*
Half the rolls are market losers, the other half I still have "life after death". I have a take if doubled. Especially because of the live cube.

  White (6 2) Can't move






 
Pip: 70
 
Pip: 71
 


Cube action equityAlert: Missed double
3-Ply Money equity: 0.871
  0.1%   4.5%  91.3%     8.7%   0.1%   0.0%
Double decision Good enough: Huge  
  Too good to double: 7%  
Take decision Current Cube Doubled Cube Borderline
Equities 0.891 0.858 0.530
Proper cube action:   Double, pass

14. Orange (5 2) 13/11 7/2


  White (2 2) Can't move






 
Pip: 70
 
Pip: 64
 

15. Orange Double
  White Pass

Cube action equity
3-Ply Money equity: 0.891
  0.1%   4.1%  92.5%     7.5%   0.0%   0.0%
Double decision Good enough: Huge  
  Too good to double: 0%  
Take decision Current Cube Doubled Cube Borderline
Equities 0.909 0.879 0.530
Proper cube action:   Double, pass

No anti-joker, therefore play-on. This is too good to double.
Another mistake.
Why not play for those 5 percent gammons.

svilo wins 1 point.

This file has been generated by Snowie Professional EditionVersion 1.1, a product of Oasya SA
Output date: 9:56:13 PM, 2/26/99