White (3 1) 8/5 6/5
2. Orange (4 1) 24/23 13/9
  White (4 3) 24/21 6/2*
Hitting on the 2 point is not VERY constructive because of the low point slotted, lots of returns and the lack of good covers (6s would cover, but break he good 8 point - which practically means shifting the 8 point). Covering with 4s makes the 8 point awkward...
Still, hitting AND splitting has the merit of protecting the peeping checker from a pointing number.
Al this is at the cost of "pulling the lion's tail" - provoking bot hitting in one's own board. The 2:1 advantage in board building makes the active play possible.
I would perhaps dismiss this opportunity especially at an even score against a weaker oponent.

3. Orange (6 1) bar/24 9/3
  White (3 1) 6/2
4. Orange (3 1) 8/5 6/5
  White (6 3) 24/18 21/18
If White trailed in the race, he might stay. As it is, he has a clear plan - to roll his midpoint stack gradually in, to make some more points and to slaughter "chicken" landing in the outer boards.

5. Orange (5 2) 24/22 13/8
  White (6 6) 13/1*(2)
6. Orange (4 2) bar/21 8/6
I expected the double next turn. With 2 blots, I was afraid I should drop, because he would hit with impunity. I prepared to take this double ...
I might as well prepare to pass...







 
Pip: 119
 
Pip: 141
 

  White Double
7. Orange Take

Cube action equity
3-Ply Money equity: 0.560
  1.3%  32.8%  65.5%    34.5%   8.6%   0.4%
Double decision Good enough: Huge  
  Too good to double: 11%  
Take decision Current Cube Doubled Cube Borderline
Equities 0.547 0.615 0.629
Proper cube action:   Double, take

My only asset is a better structure and the probability to either hit a blot very soon or to anchor. He will need to hit loose and he will probably win gammon most of the time but whenever he fails I will have a powerful cube. One more worry here, my 3s are duplicated when he hits loose ...
Playing a simple game against a stronger player made me think this is a take...


  White (6 6) 13/7(3) 7/1
8. Orange (3 2) 6/3 6/4
  White (6 2) 8/2 8/6
9. Orange (6 2) 22/16 6/4
  White (2 2) 18/14(2)
10. Orange (4 2) 16/10

Move 10 White





 
Pip: 79
 
Pip: 122
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 7/3 7/6 0.357
    0.3%   9.5%  64.0%    36.0%   3.6%   0.1%
* 2 3 6/1 0.304 (-0.053)
    0.2%   6.5%  62.9%    37.1%   2.9%   0.1%
  3 1 7/3 2/1 0.109 (-0.248)
    0.4%   9.7%  53.6%    46.4%   6.9%   0.3%
White needs some flexibility, not blocking points. Black has a lot of "capital" to play from.
Leaving 2s to hit, otherwise blocked by enemy midpoint and 2 spares instead of one stripped barpoint is better.


11. Orange (5 3) 13/8 10/7
  White (6 2) 7/1 7/5
12. Orange (6 5) 8/2 7/2
  White (6 4) 14/4*
13. Orange (6 3) bar/22 8/2
Guess what... 13/7 is better. We are the ghost busters ....
Black is afraid of ghosts. White hits the midpoint blot, Black dances, White covers, maybe hits the second blot and makes another point... And then.... Dance, dance, dance. White wins a gammon. Possible but not very likely.
The hero on the midpoint would bring 1.5% more swings or 1.6% more gammons to the enemy. A good swap.

  White (5 5) 14/4 6/1(2)

Move 14 Orange





 
Pip: 36
 
Pip: 98
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 13/7 -0.705
    0.0%   0.1%  16.7%    83.3%   3.3%   0.0%
  2 3 13/8 2/1 -0.721 (-0.016)
    0.0%   0.1%  16.3%    83.7%   3.8%   0.0%
* 3 3 13/8 13/12 -0.725 (-0.020)
    0.0%   0.1%  15.8%    84.2%   3.3%   0.0%


  White (6 5) 5/off(2)
15. Orange (3 1) 8/5 8/7
  White (5 2) 5/off 2/off
16. Orange (4 3) 12/8 7/4
  White (5 2) 4/off 4/2
17. Orange (6 4) 22/12
  White (2 1) 2/off 1/off
18. Orange (4 2) 12/6
  White (2 1) 2/off 1/off
19. Orange (4 1) 8/4 2/1
  White (4 4) 2/off 1/off(3)
kitwoolsey wins 2 points.

This file has been generated by Snowie Professional EditionVersion 1.1, a product of Oasya SA
Output date: 9:56:12 PM, 2/26/99