White (6 1) 13/7 8/7
2. Orange (2 1) 24/23 13/11
  White (5 3) 24/21 13/8
3. Orange (5 3) 8/3 6/3
Both running to the 15 or to the 16 point are better at DMP, but with gammons counting making the point is better. Another (hit-split) approach here is 6/1* 23/20 trying to make the best points first and to put White off balance for one turn.

  White (3 3) 24/21 13/10 6/3(2)
White is already a favorite. He has an advanced anchor, the beginning of a prime.
After making the silver anchor he can make the golden point (his 5 point) or to make his 3 point and bring one man down. This looks more diversifying, but it strips the midpoint and it also leaves some 8 costly shots. Making the golden point has its drawbacks too - the stack on the 6 point remains.

4. Orange (5 4) 24/15*
  White (4 2) bar/21 8/6

Move 5 Orange





 
Pip: 149
 
Pip: 147
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 23/20 15/11 -0.025
    0.3%   7.9%  51.2%    48.8%  13.0%   0.4%
* 2 3 15/11 6/3 -0.102 (-0.077)
    0.3%   7.5%  48.3%    51.7%  14.2%   0.5%
  3 2 15/11 13/10 -0.148 (-0.122)
    0.3%   8.2%  46.4%    53.6%  15.9%   0.6%
One more checker behind his anchor does not add to flexibility and the checker on his deuce may turn into a liability. If I step up, I will also freeze his midpoint and he needs to perform.
Extrication is important in this type of position. 3 checkers out of play may bring disaster. Therefore I should have stepped up.


  White (3 2) 7/4 6/4
6. Orange (5 4) 23/18*/14
  White (2 2) bar/21 13/11*(2)
7. Orange (6 2) bar/23 13/7
  White (5 4) 21/16 6/2*
8. Orange (5 3) bar/20 6/3






 
Pip: 145
 
Pip: 128
 

  White Double
9. Orange Take

Cube action equityAlert: Wrong double
3-Ply Money equity: 0.170
  0.8%  20.0%  53.9%    46.1%  11.1%   0.5%
Double decision Good enough: 97%  
  Too good to double: 2%  
Take decision Current Cube Doubled Cube Borderline
Equities 0.166 0.221 0.557
Proper cube action:   No double, take

I would double here too.
And I would not take if it was not Kit playing against me.
Snowie evaluation says it's a no double and still those 4 checkers out of play and the dangerous position might induce a pass here, at this match score.
Granted a 6 and 3 double shot hits 27 times.
Disgusted with my 3 point, I still am 17 pips ahead, I am on his 5 with my only runner, his 3s are duplicated and sixes would probably leave at least one inner blot.







 
Pip: 145
 
Pip: 128
 

  White (5 1) 21/16 3/2

10. Orange (3 1) 7/3
  White (6 2) 11/5*/3
11. Orange (6 3) Can't move
  White (3 3) 16/13(2) 8/5(2)
12. Orange (4 4) Can't move
  White (3 2) 13/8
13. Orange (2 1) bar/24 13/11

Move 13 White





 
Pip: 114
 
Pip: 126
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 21/1* 1.309
    1.6%  53.9%  84.1%    15.9%   3.0%   0.1%
  2 3 21/16(2) 11/1* 1.276 (-0.033)
    1.5%  51.2%  83.9%    16.1%   2.6%   0.1%
* 3 3 13/3 11/1* 1.240 (-0.069)
    1.5%  51.7%  81.8%    18.2%   2.5%   0.1%
Hitting on the ace point is clear, but moving the checker all the way from the 21 point is best because even if white enters his large numbers will be frozen and White will have more shots.
In addition double 4s are disastrous after the actual move.
A good problem position


14. Orange (2 2) Can't move
  White (3 2) 21/18 3/1
15. Orange (2 1) Can't move
  White (5 1) 21/20 18/13
16. Orange (1 1) Can't move
  White (4 1) 20/15
17. Orange (5 4) Can't move
  White (5 4) 15/6
18. Orange (4 4) Can't move
  White (4 1) 13/9 6/5
19. Orange (5 3) Can't move
  White (5 5) 9/4 8/3 6/1(2)
20. Orange (5 5) Can't move
  White (6 2) 5/off 4/2
21. Orange (3 1) Can't move
  White (3 1) 3/off 1/off
22. Orange (5 3) Can't move
  White (4 1) 4/off 4/3
23. Orange (3 2) Can't move
  White (6 4) 5/off 5/1
24. Orange (5 4) bar/21 11/6
  White (5 1) 3/off 1/off
25. Orange (3 1) 21/18 13/12
  White (2 1) 2/off 1/off
26. Orange (5 2) 11/6 8/6
  White (3 2) 3/off 2/off
27. Orange (6 2) 12/6 8/6
  White (2 1) 2/off 1/off
kitwoolsey wins 4 points.

This file has been generated by Snowie Professional EditionVersion 1.1, a product of Oasya SA
Output date: 9:56:11 PM, 2/26/99