1. Green (5 4) 24/20 13/8
  White (6 4) 8/2 6/2
2. Green (6 1) 13/7 8/7
  White (6 3) 24/15
3. Green (6 4) 20/10*
  White (4 3) bar/21 24/21
4. Green (2 1) 13/10
  White (4 3) 13/9 13/10
5. Green (6 2) 24/16*
  White (6 2) bar/23 10/4
Alert: Anti-joker (0.311)






 
Pip: 152
 
Pip: 130
 

6. Green Double
  White Take

Cube action equity
3-Ply Money equity: 0.505
  0.3%   9.8%  72.5%    27.5%   4.5%   0.1%
1. Double, take 0.927
2. No double 0.903 (-0.024)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.073)
Proper cube action:   Double, take


7. Green (3 2) 16/11
  White (4 1) 8/4 6/5
8. Green (5 5) 13/8(2) 10/5(2)
  White (5 5) 13/3(2)
9. Green (4 2) 11/5
  White (2 1) 13/11 6/5
10. Green (4 4) 7/3(2) 6/2*(2)
  White (6 2) Can't move
11. Green (6 6) 8/2(4)
  White (3 3) Can't move
12. Green (3 1) 8/5 6/5

Move 12 White





 
Pip: 126
 
Pip: 55
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 bar/24 11/7 -0.754
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
  2 3 bar/24 21/17 -0.789 (-0.034)
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
* 3 3 bar/24 8/4 -0.793 (-0.038)
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.

Checker play
White correctly enters on the ace point. Had she entered on the 21 point, it would be a blunder of blunders, That is what Snowie says. I am not prepared to explain in simple terms what is going on here. I might also choose to enter on the ace point. but it is not so easy to me.
1. White needs to guard against a gammon. What is the price of gammon here?
2. Against the weak "phantom" 14 backgame black will soon (probably next turn or two) be forced to leave a shot
3. Even when black manages to scramble unharmed, she will bear off inefficiently and that might help white to win the save-gammon race.
4. What are the combined race+holding chances of white in a 4 point holding game here? What is the chance of winning by hitting from the 4 point, without staying on the ace point? What is the chance of winning by hitting from a weak phantom 14 game here?
Phantom backgame is a backgame where the second point is only imaginary - the backgamer does not possess it.
If the missing point (the hole) is the back one, the backgamer MUST have at least one man on it to form a "phantom" backgame structure. Then the backgame is weak.
If the missing point (the enemy hole) is the front one, then we have a "strong" phantom game. The point we have will stay untill the end and the phantom point will "play together" with it and restrict enemy choices. For instance (Mkr006), a strong 14 backgame gives so much chances to white that black is not strong enough to double!
White's perfect board and his small (25%) racing chances to save the gammon naturally, make him enter on the ace point. It is quite clear here, but white would enter on the ace point even with even with black surplus men on all his 4 points. (Mkr004a)
Entering on the ace point is apparent., but 8/4 wastes 2 pips and burries a checker that might complete a prime.
If white played the four correctly 11/7, her next steps would be to bear in efficiently (on the 6 point, or to move a rear checker).


13. Green (6 3) 6/off 6/3
  White (4 2) 21/15
14. Green (6 6) 5/off(4)
Alert: Anti-joker (0.708)
  White (4 1) 21/20* 11/7
Alert: Joker (0.824)
15. Green (4 2) Can't move

Move 15 White





 
Pip: 110
 
Pip: 46
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 20/14 15/11 0.701
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
  2 3 20/16 15/9 0.665 (-0.036)
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
* 4 3 24/18 15/11 0.631 (-0.070)
    Simplified 3-ply, 50%.
Alert: Blunder (0.070)

Checker play
The way to play the containment game is to "stay back "- with the back man as long as possible, and "shoot-far" - in backgammon as opposed to real life, shooting from a long distance has more chances to hit. Hence, 20/14 10/11 is best. Here white "shoots" at his bar point.


16. Green (6 4) Can't move
  White (5 5) 20/10 18/13 11/6
17. Green (3 2) Can't move






 
Pip: 80
 
Pip: 46
 

  White Double
18. Green Pass

Cube action equityAlert: Wrong pass
Mini-Rollout Money equity: 0.552
  0.0%   0.0%  77.9%    22.1%   0.5%   0.0%
  95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.552 0.006.
Rollout settings:
Truncated rollout, depth 5,
3888 games (equiv. 75002 games),
played 1-ply score-based,
seed 999, with race database.
1. Redouble, take 0.885
2. No redouble 0.872 (-0.013)
3. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.115)
Proper cube action:   Redouble, take


Cube action
Interesting.
One thing to consider in such situations when the match is on the line is the match equity after a pass. If black passes here, she will be trailing 7 away 3 away (24.5%) to win the match.
Black has about 22.5% cubless chances to win and a live cube . For money it would be a double and a take.
The books (Robertie's Advanced Backgammon) say black would have a money take if white had a closed board and black had a perfect bear off position.
Here black is not perfect for the bear off , but white needs to work untill she claims closeout . White closes with any 3 or 6 plus 11 22 21 51 42 and 53 (230/36). In the remaining 6/36 black will have a chance to jump out with 1/36 and win about 50% from there 6/1256 x 2/3 = 12/3700 = 1/330. About 1/3 percemt. This is a way I would "count out" additional chances to the already known 22.5% from theory. In fact, the additional winning chances (they come in addition to the known 22.5% after closeout) are more than 0.5%. Snowie says black has 0.5% chance to win a gammon! How come!
Unless... (yes!) White's strategy here is to keep the slotted checker on the bar point even if he does not succeed in covering, but if he can keep the board and 2 checkers out. Of the 6 non-covering numbers 2 are doubles 44 and 55. White cannot keep the board and 2 checkers out, so he clears the barpoint blot. But with 54 and 52 black not only leaves the barpoint slot, but slots his ace too!. It is after these sequences that a 61 from the bar can often lead to a gammon for black. Beautiful sequences indeed. But do they add up to 0.5%. I doubt it.
Ok, let us stop at 23% cubeless winning chances(CWC). In a money game black would gladly take, because he would gain the weapon of the cube. Black has 23% chance to win the game if played till the end, but he has more chances to reach a position where he is, say, 75% favorite. This would be enough to redouble white out.
Black has another incentive to take - the score. The trailer in the score loves to take high cubes. In fact, if black takes, he has a semi-automatic redouble to 8. If white closes, black will stay silent, but with any market loser before being closed out, and later, black must redouble.
Maria missed a take here. She should have played the role of the caught wild animal. She should have bitten rather than tuck her tail. That would give her more chance to survive.

MaiaPeicheva wins 2 points.

Game 3 simplified statistics (EMG Rated)
Player MariaKr MaiaPeicheva
Rating world class world class
Overall 3.811 4.052
Checker play 0.097 4.052
Double 0.000 0.000
Take 3.713 0.000

This file has been generated by Snowie Version 3.0, a product of Oasya SA
Output date: 10:57:01 AM, 12/29/2003(Export v2.10)